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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.